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Things I have deduced about this particular gif:

  • If I had to guess then I’d say that whoever Sherlock’s looking down there has been murdered. If it was an injury then I think that Mary would already be trying to help them. 
  • Mary looks upset, but not as upset as you would expect her to be if her husband had died. So I’d expect that dead person to be somebody who isn’t extremely close to her.
  • Sherlock looks quite upset here, indicating that whoever has died was quite close to him. I’m guessing that it’s either Molly, Lestrade, Mycroft or Mrs Hudson.

If Moffat and Gaitiss kill off any of those four characters you just mentioned image

^i second this statement

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